Inside Asia

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Singapore after Lee Kwan Yew

According to the International Herald Tribune, the man who created Singapore in his own severe image, Lee Kuan Yew, had an unsettling glimpse into what could be the future of his country, and he did not like it.

The three years from 2001 to 2003 were difficult times for Singapore. The economy was in recession; and September 11 dashed the hope for a quick recovery. Moreover SARS in 2002 cost Singapore $1 billion in tourism and pushed unemployment to a record high of 5.5 percent. The economic downturn deeply traumatized the nation. After decades of growth, and the constant extolling by the long ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) government that anything is achievable if people work harder and smarter, the economic woe is like a fall from grace. Despite the return to growth, the ruling party seems to be losing its appeal. Even though securing an overwhelming victory in the recent election, PAP votes in fact fell from 75.3 percent in 2001 to 66.6 percent.

As Singapore economy re-invents, moving from high technology manufacturing to ‘knowledge-based’ industries of computer-aided design and bio-technology, Lee’s strong guiding hand was both a blessing and hindrance. What is the future of Singapore after Lee? Are decades of economic prosperity re-shaping Singapore’s political and social future?

You are invited to attend the Young Professionals Project Asia Dialogue.

The speaker: Dr Yao Souchou teaches social anthropology at the University of Sydney. The talk is based on his forthcoming book Singapore: The State and the Culture of Excess, to be published by Routledge end of 2006. Yao has written extensively on the culture and politics of Southeast Asia. His research on Chinese business behaviour is recounted in Confucian Capitalism: Discourse, Practice and Myth of Chinese Enterprise (2002).

Date: Wednesday 16 August 2006

Time: 5.30pm for 6.00pm start

Venue: Harbour Room, The American Club, Level 15, 131 Macquarie Street, Sydney

RSVP essential.
Please RSVP by 14 August to Eugene Sebastian on 02 9351 8567 or esebastian@riap.usyd.edu.au. Please advice your name, contact number and organisation when responding.

Dress code: Smart casual / business attire
Drinks can be purchased at the American Club’s Manhattan Bar.

Download a flyer.

Interview with Dr Yao about his book on Confucian capitalism.

Other research on Singapore:
- Garry Rodan, Singapore ‘Exceptionalism’? Authoritarian Rule and State Transformation, Working Paper No.131, May 2006
- Terence Lee and Lars Willnat, Media Research and Political Communication in Singapore, Working Paper No.130, April 2006

The power of diaspora

By Eugene Sebastian

It is estimated that the total size of Indian diaspora abroad or the Non-Resident Indians (NRI) is in the vicinity of 20 million. The NRIs are located in the Gulf states, South East Asia, South Africa, parts of Latin America, to Fiji, Mauritius, the United Kingdom and the United States.

As a 'scattered' group they have recently attracted official attention in India. The Indian government has just begun mapping out the Indian settlement and communities abroad.

According to Sanjay Chaturvedi in a recent Asian Affairs Journal, the Indian government decision to upgrade the Indian diaspora on its list of foreign policy priorities might be seen as a ‘response to the emerging contours and compulsions of the international geopolitical economy’. ‘It should be noted’, according to Chaturvedi, ‘that the economic strategies of transnational groups represent a new source and a force to respect within international finance and commerce.’

It seems that their growing importance stems not only from the impressive remittances they bring to India's economy but also the potential political roles they may play in the countries they live.

A high level Committee on Indian Diaspora was appointed by the Ministry of External Affairs in September 2000 to recommend a broad and flexible policy framework towards non-resident Indians (NRI).

One key aspect of the report is the recognition of the political influence NRIs have in countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States in playing a major role in helping further India’s foreign policy and security goals.

According to the report, a section of financially powerful and politically well connected Indian Americans have emerged during the last decade to effectively mobilise on foreign policy issues relating to India and play a crucial role in generating a favourable climate of opinion in Congress.

Indians in America for example represent a rapidly growing Asian American group. The community is said to earn a median income of $60,093 – nearly double the media income of all American families. There are about 200,000 Indian millionaires. About 58 percent of Indian Americans over the age of twenty-five have a college degree. 43.6 percent of Indian Americans in the work force are employed as managers or professionals. There are as many as 35,000 Indian American physicians. Nearly 300,000 Indian Americans work in high tech industries. 15 percent of Silicon Valley start-up firms are owned by Indian Americans. More than 5,000 Indian Americans are on the faculties of American universities. And 74,603 Indians are studying in the United States, making Indians the largest group of students in the country.

To understand how to effectively leverage on its diaspora, the Committee claims to have studied in depth the Jewish, Polish, Lebanese, Italian, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Chinese and Irish diasporas. Two Diaspora models have impressed the Committee the most are the Jewish and Chinese.

Some of the Committee’s recommendations include granting of dual nationality to members of the Diaspora; establishing viable structures for handling issues related to the Diaspora; creating a scheme similar to the ‘Israel Bond’ used in Israel’s reconstruction efforts, to strengthen the Indian national economy and infrastructure; and creating new institutions, boosting the strength of overseas mission to help provide security to its overseas workers

Readings:
- Sanjay Chaturvedi. Asian Affairs, an American Review. Washington: Fall 2005. Vol. 32, Iss. 3; p. 141 (29 pages)
- Reworlding: the literature of Indian diaspora - link
- From International Migration to Transnational Diaspora - link

A new peasant revolution – is China learning from its past?

By Thu-Trang Tran

“Every dynasty in China's imperial history was destroyed by discontented peasants and drifters”

Tuesday 16 May marked the 40th anniversary of the launch of the Cultural Revolution. Forty years since China has emerged the world’s fourth largest economy and is predicted to be the world’s largest economy in 20 years.

Although the Chinese government may not wish to confront nor discuss the social unrest and violence of the Cultural Revolution, it seems the government is wary of history repeating itself. The government is concerned about the simmering social tension resulting from the widening wealth gap as the giant economy powers its way to the top spot. Over the years, the discontent of the farmers and migrant workers has started to manifest. In response the Chinese government recently launched a campaign to build a ‘new Socialist countryside’ with the aim of eliminating social inequality a key priority for the coming five years.

The class struggle continues…
China’s economy has been growing at a rate of about 10 percent a year for at least the past decade. The impressive pace of growth can easily be seen in the explosion of mega-metropolises the likes of Shanghai and Guangdong. A PricewaterhouseCoopers report projected that China will grow so fast that it could outstrip all developed nations by 2050 (based on purchasing power parity).

However, the fruits of such new market pragmatism have not been delivered to the rural population. In 2005, the per capita net income of Chinese farmers rose by 6.2 percent to 3,255 yuan (US$405), while the disposable income of urban dwellers rose by 9.6 percent to 10,493 yuan (US$1,304), 3.22 times over their rural counterparts. Furthermore, according to the China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the richest 10% of the country’s urban population control 45% of urban assets while the poorest 10% hold only 1.4%.

Another peasant uprising?
The 40th anniversary of the Cultural Revolution is a timely reminder of the possible violence and brutality that can descend upon a nation when the gap between the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ reaches its tipping point.

Mao launched the Cultural Revolution in response to the increasing capitalist trend and class struggle believing the Cultural Revolution would ultimately create a new society without gap between urban and rural regions. The result? The bourgeoisie were overthrown, millions forced into manual labour, tens of thousands executed, and the wealth gap continued to widen to date.

In China’s new economic revolution, there is no cult of Mao. However, class struggles remain and parallels may be drawn. The 21st century capitalists are the old bourgeoisie and intellectuals of the Cultural Revolution; corrupt Party officials are the old party enemies of Mao; and the farmers and workers are the old student Red Guards. If 800 million rural dwellers – that is 70% of the population – continue to be left out of the economic boom, then one can expect the worse unless actions are taken to temper their discontent.

In the last decade, two developments have exacerbated the tension between the city and the countryside: the urban shift and land grabs.

Impoverished rural dwellers are flocking to the country's eastern cities seeking opportunities. Unfortunately, due to the hukou system of household registration (‘a system akin to South Africa's apartheid’), rural dwellers are treated as second class citizens. Compared to their urban counterparts, they are deprived of the benefits of housing and schooling for their children and struggle to find employment, compounding the urban unemployment problem. Furthermore, the mass migration of abled-bodies to the cities means that there is lack of potential for productive growth in the rural region due to fewer workers being available.

The rural dwellers are also losing their precious farmland to corrupt officials and urban developers. Although such land is communally owned, for farmers, the land is a means of making their living. Farmers all over China now see ‘their’ land taken away, bought by developers from corrupt local government officers. Land on the outer-edge of the cities are then converted to McMansions or factories that earn millions for the developers and entrepreneurs. The money however, does not reach the hands of the farmers.

Unable to reap the rewards of economic growth that their privileged urban peers have reaped, and angered by the land grabs by officials, farmers are staging protests around the country and demanding government attention. In January 2006, the Ministry of Public Security announced that there were 87,000 such incidents in 2005, a 6.6 percent increase over the previous year. For example, in June last year, in the village of Dingzhou, local residents clashed violently with security officers over the local government’s seizure of land for a power plant and low compensation paid to residents.

It appears the government is taking heed of the social discontent and is responding with policy actions to relieve the social tensions.

One of the goals in China’s 11th five-year plan is to build a ‘new Socialist countryside’. The aim is to promote coordinated urban and rural development, to promote agricultural productivity, to deepen rural reform, to develop rural public services and to increase farmers’ income.

One recent policy announcement in favour of the rural dwellers is the proposed abolition of the hukou system in 11 of China's 23 provinces, mainly along the developed eastern coast. The aim is to encourage a new influx of labour from poorer western regions and to stabilize the protests. However, there are concerns that such reform will strain the local cities’ resources and municipal governments may object the proposed change on such grounds.

Furthermore, as of March this year, the government has made plans to increase spending on rural health care and schools. The government aims to spend 4 percent of GDP on education (up from 2.7 percent) with the aim of improving rural schooling. Other measures include cutting basic agricultural taxes and increasing farm subsidies to support the farmers and close income disparity. In relation to land requisitions, Premier Wen Jiabao suggested more efforts would be made to protect farmers.

If one remembers that every dynasty in China's imperial history was destroyed by discontented peasants and drifters, the threat of a ‘peasant uprising’ posed by the ever-widening wealth gap between urbanites and rural-dwellers is a real one and should not be underestimated. Therefore, any policies formalised at the National People's Congress (China’s parliament) in March need to make real inroads in elevating the rural dwellers out of poverty and not be mere token policies.

Further readings:
BBC - Chinese communist revolution
Time Asia - The next cultural revolution
Voice of America - Rural revolt - growing unrest in China
Seeds of Revolt in Rural China: ‘Farmers' Heroes’ give a voice to besieged taxpayers, By John Pomfret, The Washington Post, Tuesday 8 May 2001; Page A01
Transformation of rural China - by Jonathan Unger
Villagers and popular resistance in contemporary China - Lian Jiang Li & Kevin J. O'Brien

Governing the Market for America: Will the real US model please stand up?

Event: Discipline of Government and International Relations
School of Economics & Political Science
Faculty of Economics and Business
The University of Sydney  

Speaker: Professor Linda Weiss ,  Government & International Relations, University of Sydney
12. 00  to  1.30 pm
Thursday 25 May, 2006
Room 397, Merewether Building, University of Sydney
      
The US lays strong claim to being the world’s most liberal state and the highest expression of an open, free-market economy. As the globe’s most powerful champion of competitive liberalism, it has steadfastly pressed on others the merits of open markets, transparency, fairness, and above all else a level playing field. US departures from the free-market norm are widely acknowledged -- but these are mostly framed as protectionist deviations from a liberal core or as interventions to combat foreign unfairness.  This paper argues that the standard liberal depiction of the American state is out of date: the government-business relationship in the United States over the past two decades has undergone a substantial shift – in the direction of a more coordinated and collaborative (and in certain respects increasingly proactive) approach to policymaking.  The American pattern of government-business relations now has more in common with aspects of the classical Japanese model which the US has worked hard to dismantle. In key areas of trade, technology, and procurement, government works closely with the private sector to promote US commercial interests, both at home and abroad, both proactively and defensively. Although invariably justified in official discourse as modes of ‘levelling the playing field’, these interventions usually have little to do with fighting foreign unfairness.

Contact: Dr Joanne Kelly
Discipline of Government and International Relations
Merewether Building
University of Sydney
NSW 2006
Australia
 
Tel: (0061)-2-9 351 2313 
Fax: (0061)-2-9351-3624
email:  j.kelly@econ.usyd.edu.au

Partners in a new vision - Australia and Japan across time

A symposium for the Australian - Japan Historical Photo Exhibition

Date: Thursday, 1st June 2006
Venue: Level 1, Barnet Long Room
Customs House Sydney
131 Alfred Street, Circular Quay
Time: 3:00 p.m. – 6:30p.m.

Symposium - “Perspectives and Prospects:

Section 1: “Social and Cultural Encounters”
- Associate Prof. Alison Tokita
President of the Japanese Studies Association of Australia
Convenor of Japanese Studies Program, School of Languages, Cultures and Liguistics,
Monash University
Topic: “The Future of Japanese Studies and its role in Australia-Japan Relations”

- Dr. Alison Broinowski
Visiting Fellow, ANU & UNSW
Topic: “Across a Crowded Region: the attraction of opposites”

Section 2: “Australia and Japan in the Asia Pacific and the Wider World”
- Prof. Hugh White
Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre
Australia National University
Topic: “Convergence: Australia and Japan as Strategic Partners”

- Prof. Yoshi Soeya
School of Law, Keio University, Japan
Topic: “Japan's 'Middle Power' Diplomacy and Australia-Japan Cooperation”

RSVP by 29th May 2006
Please contact Susanna Tse
on Tel: 02-9231 3455 (after 9:30 am.)
Fax: 02-9221 8807 or
E-mail: t-susanna@tokyonet.com.au

Generational change and its new policy challenges

Decreasing fertility rates, slowing population growth and an increasing proportion of elderly people in the population base pose major challenges to Australian and Korean policy makers.

Such dramatic demographic shifts, analysts predict, will reduce economic growth, tighten labour market, affect savings and investments and impact on productivity.

How should governments respond to these challenges? What policies work?

In addressing the emerging threat, the University of Sydney will be hosting a one-day international conference in November to discuss some of the key policy issues and challenges facing both Australia and Korea today.

Funded by the Australia Korea Foundation, the conference, Generational Change and New Policy Challenges for Australia and Korea , will explore the current policy obstacles affecting both countries and what strategies are useful to help mitigate or resolve them.

Current debates and discussions on social policy tend to compare Australia with the United States and the United Kingdom.

This conference offers new perspectives on Australian society through a comparison with the Republic of Korea (ROK) in light of the importance of the relationship between the two nations.

The conference will examine the social demographic changes in both countries. It will explore how technology is affecting the ‘digital generation', those born between 1979 and 1994. It will consider the struggles of the ‘sandwich generation' in supporting their ageing parents while paying for their children's education. In addition, it will explore the social impact of the ageing in light of changing health, financial and labour needs.

The conference is relevant to business, education, government and non-government sectors interested in the effects, challenges and opportunities of demographic change.

Bond markets in Asia

The Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific (RIAP) recently won an Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) grant to assist in the development of Bond Markets in the Asia Pacific region.

The establishment of viable bond markets among APEC economies, particularly those in the South East Asia region has become a priority developmental issue in recent years. APEC Finance Ministers continue to call upon member countries to implement collaborative capacity building activities that address the impediments to bond market development.

Bond markets provide the basic infrastructure for the development of the financial system and the overall economy of a country. It is an alternative to bank lending, where commercial banks are not suited to finance long-term investments.

In responding to the call, RIAP initiated a collaborative effort with the Securities Commission of Malaysia to deliver a two-phase multilateral training program targeting financial regulators responsible for overseeing the functioning of bond markets.

To be staged in Kuala Lumpur and Hanoi later this year, the two-phase program will involve key government agencies from China, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore.

“The aim of the training is to assist financial regulators make strategic policy decisions in directing their bond market development”, said Leslie Williams RIAP Deputy Director and the program's manager.

“This may include helping them identify the barriers that prevent market efficiency or liquidity,”

“And by collaborating with our Malaysian partners, we are also able to provide the trainees with an understanding of how to manage their challenges from the perspective of a strong developing Asian country where a good level of bond market efficiency is taking place,” he said.

The second phase of the program will takes place in Hanoi, Vietnam.

The program will be co-hosted with the Vietnamese State Securities Commission and will focus on action planning, a training process that help trainees formulate strategies to overcome the impediments to bond market development.

An international seminar involving speaker representatives from APEC and ADB will also be held in conjunction with this follow-up program.

For further details contact Leslie Williams: l.williams@riap.usyd.edu.au

Children in coflict with the law in Cambodia

UNICEF Cambodia Report

RIAP recently undertook a major research commissioned by UNICEF to examine the way in which children in conflict with the law in Cambodia are treated.

The report, to be released in early March, found that there are serious deficiencies in the laws and in the response of the criminal justice agencies.

The rights of children are routinely violated at all stages in the criminal justice process.

There is no age of criminal responsibility and no system of juvenile justice in Cambodia.

There are only a few special laws applying to children in conflict with the law in the areas of criminal procedure and sentencing.

There are no specialised juvenile courts and no separate system of juvenile detention.

Children are generally detained in adult prisons and usually are not separated from the adult prisoners.

Whilst the broad features of the problem are known, there is not a large body of empirical research into children in conflict with the law and there are few published official indicators.

There is scattered data on various aspects of children in conflict with the law, but the information has not been comprehensively assessed and put together to provide an overview.

Furthermore, there has been no systematic attempt to assess the availability of key juvenile justice indicators in Cambodia.

For further information contact: Eugene Sebastian

This all-male debate lacks depth

By Professor Stephanie Fahey is director of the Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific, Sydney University and chairwoman of the National Committee of Women in International Security Australia.

Article published on April 19, 2005 in the Sydney Morning Herald.

Women have a limited role in Australia's think tanks, writes Stephanie Fahey.

Every evening the family living room is filled with news of international security, terrorism and defence but in Australia, women's voices on these issues are silent - or perhaps being silenced? Whatever one may think of the views of Condoleezza Rice or Madeleine Albright, the US has propelled women into influential positions in which they display keen interest and capacity. So where are their Australian counterparts?

At least half the staff and students studying international relations are women. Following the gender policy reforms in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in the 1960s, and much later in the Defence Force, the gender imbalance has improved but few women are accepted into high-profile positions or engage in public commentary on international security - seemingly one of the last bastions of male dominance. Who are the established public commentators and who reinforces their monopoly?

The Lowy Institute for International Policy now rivals the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on defence issues. Lowy experts appear regularly in the media, but none is a woman.

Looking at its board of directors, senior staff, researchers, speakers and international collaborators, it is difficult to find a woman actively contributing to the debates. Its international advisory board has an American woman member, and of the 16 professional staff and visitors, the only woman is Martine Letts, a former diplomat with expertise in arms control, but as a deputy director she is yet to contribute to policy debates.

At the inaugural conference of the Lowy Institute in 2003, the program included not one woman. At last week's Sturdee Symposium on Australian Grand Strategy, co-hosted by the Lowy Institute, Senator Marise Payne did chair a session, although no women made it to the symposium dinner.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute is a little better, with one woman board member, Jocelyn Newman, and one researcher, Dr Ellie Wainwright.

Not many would argue that women should be excluded because they are women, although some still argue that women have nothing to contribute because their perspectives and policy recommendations are indistinguishable from those of men and so it is unnecessary to include them or, even worse, what women have to contribute is inferior and therefore should not be entertained.

Thirty years ago debates were rehearsed and won regarding women's rights to hold senior and influential positions and their capacity to enrich and diversify the workplace, so why is the defence and international security arena in Australia so myopic in relation to gender participation? Those in positions to orchestrate change acknowledge the imbalance but demonstrate no obvious commitment to change.

The debates in defence and international security in Australia are already too narrowly defined and the recent, largely semantic, differences of interpretation of the Defence of Australia doctrine point to how shallow the ground has become. Women can enliven discussions in conflict management, foreign policy and peace building, just as they have in many other debates.

Groups of women subscribe less readily than men to the myth of the efficiency of violence; women tend to expose the "underbelly of war" by focusing on basic needs such as food and health security; they tend to be preoccupied with the bigger picture - the consequences - while some men maintain personal agendas of power. Initiatives powered by women usually emphasise inclusion, participation, consensus building, dialogue and sustainable elements crucial in international security.

Women do make a difference to the debates - so if women are not in positions to contribute, then a positive contribution from Australia's think tank community would be to actively mentor young women instead of perpetuating a male apathy which engenders resentment and ultimately confrontation.